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2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Our Final Selections, Ranked

"A Star Is Born"

The race is on between international blockbuster “A Star Is Born,” more likely to rating probably the most nominations, and Netflix’s Golden Globe and Critics Selection winner “Roma.”

The 2019 Oscar race is all about Greatest Well-liked Movie. Not solely does the Academy not want that new class in any case this yr (or it appears, a popular Oscar host), however extra big-grossers than ever are vying for spots on the ultimate Oscar poll to be revealed on January 22. Which could imply extra individuals will tune into an Oscar present, rooting for mainstream films they really care about.

However whereas extra in style hits, led by Bradley Cooper’s blockbuster “A Star is Born,” (Warner Bros.) are in rivalry for a number of classes together with Greatest Image, bragging rights should wind up with Netflix’s first bonafide Greatest Image candidate, Alfonso Cuarón’s cinephile-dream “Roma,” which commanded a extra strong arthouse launch than any Netflix movie up to now, together with a lavish promotional marketing campaign, and has been extensively seen on the worldwide streaming platform.

The Golden Globe and Critics Selection winner and Mexico’s black-and-white foreign-language Oscar entry, “Roma” is a hybrid four-hankie drama pushed by inventive and technological ambitions that delivers a robust message about social strata in Mexico. It’s shaping as much as be a robust contender for the Greatest Image prize.

Learn Extra:‘Roma’ Will Be the Greatest Image Nominee to Beat

However solely triple menace Bradley Cooper’s “A Star is Born” — a up to date backstage musical replace of the acquainted story made 3 times earlier than — has an ideal rating on guild nominations, displaying robust help from each actors and crafts, together with SAG Ensemble, DGA, PGA and WGA nods. And Spike Lee’s provocative true story “BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Options) additionally boasts that recognition from all 4 guilds, however with much less craft help.

By my tally, “Roma,” “A Star Is Born” and “The Favourite” will rack up 10 nominations apiece, adopted by “Black Panther” and “First Man” with eight, “Vice ” with seven, “Mary Poppins Returns” with six, “BlacKkKlansman” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” with 5, and “Green Book” with 4.

4117_D017_09462_R Topher Grace stars as David Duke and Adam Driver as Flip Zimmerman in Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, a Focus Features release.Credit: David Lee / Focus Features4117_D017_09462_R Topher Grace stars as David Duke and Adam Driver as Flip Zimmerman in Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, a Focus Features release.Credit: David Lee / Focus Features


David Lee

Clearly, $30-million “A Star Is Born” boasts probably the most help from the Academy’s 17 branches and can earn probably the most nominations: by my rely, 10. Why so many? Rookie Cooper has crafted a shifting romantic drama with compelling reside performances by himself and Woman Gaga, who will inevitably win Greatest Track. Academy voters are moved by this fourth replace of the venerable present enterprise story. No different movie boasts such large help. However as impeccably crafted because the film is, Cooper might have made a excessive diploma of problem look too straightforward. Is “A Star Is Born” the film Academy voters need to characterize Hollywood at this place and time? In recent times they’ve leaned into harder-hitting socially-conscious dramas like “Moonlight,” “Spotlight,” and “12 Years a Slave.”

Ryan CooglerRyan Coogler

“Black Panther”


Ryan Coogler’s SAG Ensemble and PGA nominee “Black Panther,” Marvel’s lauded historic chart-buster, additionally boasts robust craft backing and landed a SAG Ensemble nod –however with none appearing nominations. As Marvel villain Killmonger, Michael B. Jordan performs the movie’s most nuanced and layered character, however hasn’t gained traction within the Supporting Actor race, and Coogler didn’t land a nod from the mainstream DGA. At age 32, he could also be deemed younger sufficient to return one other yr. And as a lot of a cultural achievement as “Black Panther” is, many nonetheless think about it a comic-book film.

Learn Extra:Look Out: ‘Black Panther’ Might Roar All of the Solution to the Oscar for Greatest Image

Two movies based mostly on actual individuals landed SAG (however not ensemble), DGA, PGA and WGA nominations: true 60s street film “Green Book” (Peter Farrelly) ought to rating for its two well-liked stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in addition to Unique Screenplay, because it battles complaints that the story is informed from the white perspective; “Vice” will even get help from the writers and actors branches for writer-director Adam McKay and Globe and Critics Selection-winner Christian Bale (this yr’s Gary Oldman) and long-overdue Amy Adams as Republican energy couple Dick and Lynne Cheney. Each movies have passionate backers.

“Crazy Rich Asians”

Sanja Bucko

Past the highest 5 contenders for Greatest Image, the sector might wind up with as much as 10 nominees, relying on how passionate voters are this yr. Whereas inclusion continues to be a robust issue with an more and more numerous voting physique, it seems unlikely than any ladies will rating Director slots this yr, and ground-breaking Oscar-nominated Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”) is a long-shot for cinematography for “Black Panther,” though her teammates Hannah Beachler and Ruth Carter are robust contenders for Manufacturing and Costume Design, respectively.

Solely thirty-one % of Academy voters, nevertheless, are ladies. So we might additionally see the Academy’s dominant white-male contingent swing towards motion film “Black Panther” (eight possible nominations) and Queen musical “Bohemian Rhapsody” (5 possible nominations, together with Globes Greatest Actor-winner Rami Malek).

"A Quiet Place""A Quiet Place"

“A Quiet Place”


This yr, two different well-liked entries took PGA Prime Ten slots, John Krasinski’s well-mounted nearly silent thriller “A Quiet Place” and Jon M. Chu’s rollicking romantic comedy “Crazy Rich Asians.” “A Quiet Place,” starring Emily Blunt (who additionally earned kudos within the title position in “Mary Poppins Returns”) might register within the Sound or Supporting Actress classes, whereas “Crazy Rich Asians” additionally landed a SAG Ensemble nomination and the Critics Selection Comedy award. Star Michelle Yeoh is a long-shot for Supporting Actress.

Traditionally, stats reveal that SAG Ensemble winners don’t all the time match up with Greatest Image nominations or wins. Final yr’s Ensemble winner was Fox Searchlight comedy “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which took residence SAG and Oscar statues for Greatest Actress Frances McDormand and Supporting Actor Sam Rockwell. However “The Shape of Water” turned the second Greatest Image Oscar winner in 23 years and not using a SAG Ensemble nomination, following “Braveheart” again in 1995. Neither 2015’s “The Revenant” nor 2016’s “La La Land,” each lacking SAG Ensemble nominations, have been capable of obtain a Greatest Image win.

Thus, “Roma,” which gained the often-predictive prime Critics’ Selection award, might additionally win Greatest Image with out touchdown a SAG Ensemble nomination. An Oscar nomination for Yalitza Aparicio would reveal some help from the Academy’s dominant actors department, which has come via for each non-pro actors (Haing S. Ngor of “The Killing Fields”) and Harold Russell (“The Best Years of Our Lives”) in addition to such foreign-language stars as Isabelle Huppert and Marion Cotillard.

Learn Extra: ‘Roma’ Will Be the Greatest Image Nominee to Beat

"Bohemian Rhapsody""Bohemian Rhapsody"

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

20th Century Fox/YouTube

“Bohemian Rhapsody” is an anomaly this yr, profitable the Greatest Drama Golden Globe and Greatest Actor for Malek (which actually doesn’t imply a lot in Oscar phrases) in addition to a extra significant SAG Ensemble nomination and Greatest Actor slot. The musical additionally has landed many craft guild nominations, which signifies vast help. Nevertheless, a directing nomination is unlikely for non-DGA nominee Bryan Singer, who was fired from the film and is tainted by sexual assault allegations. Whereas it’s exhausting to think about many citizens placing a Queen biopic with a Metascore of 49 at primary on their Greatest Image nomination poll, it might be of their prime 5. Don’t be shocked if “Bohemian Rhapsody” squeezes into the Greatest Image race.

Emma Stone in the film THE FAVOURITE. Photo by Yorgos Lanthimos. © 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights ReservedEmma Stone in the film THE FAVOURITE. Photo by Yorgos Lanthimos. © 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Emma Stone within the “The Favourite”

Yorgos Lanthimos

Extra typical of current Oscar entries is specialty hit “The Favourite” (Fox Searchlight), which surprisingly didn’t land a SAG Ensemble nod, though its three stars have been nominated. Whereas Yorgos Lanthimos didn’t land a DGA nomination for this visually luxurious, wickedly humorous portrait of a power-mad monarch (Olivia Colman) romancing two of her women in ready (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), he might wind up with a directing nod from the Academy, in addition to an Unique Screenplay slot (the movie was not WGA-eligible), and craft nominations together with cinematography and costumes. The British film leads the BAFTA area with 12 nominations, and Olivia Colman took residence the comedy Globe and Critics Selection awards.

One other Searchlight launch, Marielle Heller’s New York memoir “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” will possible land appearing nods for the deliciously drunken performances of Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant in addition to an Tailored Screenplay nomination for Nicole Holofcener.

First Man (Movie) Ryan GoslingFirst Man (Movie) Ryan Gosling

“First Man”

Common Footage

More likely to rack up seven craft nominations is Damien Chazelle’s moon race success d’estime, “First Man,” which stumbled on the field workplace however has executed nicely with guild nominations. It might additionally land a Greatest Image spot in addition to a win for Justin Hurwitz’s Globe and Critics Selection-winning rating.

An extended shot for a Greatest Image slot is “Moonlight” writer-director Barry Jenkins’ elegant James Baldwin adaptation “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which gained Greatest Tailored Screenplay on the Critics Selection Awards (over “BlacKkKlansman”). “If Beale Street Could Talk” might might additionally notch nominations for Globe and Critics Selection-winning Supporting Actress (Regina King) — even and not using a SAG point out — in addition to composer Nicholas Britell for Rating.

Two A24 movies, spiritual drama “First Reformed” and coming-of-age comedy “Eighth Grade,” have attracted sufficient consideration from critics teams to make lengthy overdue “Taxi Driver” author Paul Schrader and newcomer Bo Burnham long-shots for Unique Screenplay, and Ethan Hawke an actual risk for Greatest Actor.

"Cold War""Cold War"

“Cold War”

Amazon Studios

Within the overseas movie race, 4 films are more likely to make the minimize from the overseas committee: “Roma,” Pawel Pawlikowski’s beautiful black-and-white European romance “Cold War” (Poland) — which might land a cinematography slot, if not a nod for breakout Joanna Kulig — Hirokazu Kore-Eda’s common household drama “Shoplifters” (Japan), and Nadine Labaki’s gritty story of a road child, “Capernaum” (Lebanon). The fifth slot is a race amongst South Korea’s “Burning,” Denmark’s “The Guilty” and Florian Henkel Von Donnersmarck’s “Never Look Away” (Germany).

Within the documentary race, 4 box-office hits are vying for slots: Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi’s climbing feat “Free Solo” (Nationwide Geographic), Betsy West and Julie Cohen’s Ruth Bader Ginsburg valentine “RBG” (CNN/Magnolia), triplet thriller “Three Identical Strangers” (Neon) and Fred Rogers tearjerker “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (Focus Options), whereas robust contenders embrace Bing Liu’s shifting memoir “Minding the Gap” (Hulu) and embedded Syrian jihadi household portrait “Of Fathers and Sons” (Kino Lorber).

Listed here are my remaining Oscar predictions, so as of probability to win. We study the outcomes on the break of day on January 22.

Greatest Image

“Roma” (Netflix)
“A Star Is Born” (Warner Bros.)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Options)
“Green Book” (Common)
“Vice” (Annapurna)
“Black Panther” (Marvel/Disney)
“The Favourite” (Fox Searchlight)
“First Man” (Common)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Fox)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Annapurna)

Greatest Director

Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”)
Adam McKay (“Vice”)

Greatest Actor

Christian Bale (“Vice”)
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”)

Greatest Actress

Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
Glenn Shut (“The Wife”)
Woman Gaga (“A Star Is Born”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”)

Greatest Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”)
Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman:)

Greatest Supporting Actress

Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Amy Adams (“Vice”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”)

Greatest Tailored Screenplay

“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“Black Panther”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Leave No Trace”

Greatest Unique Screenplay

“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“First Reformed”

Greatest Animated Function

“Incredibles 2”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Isle of Dogs”

“Age of Sail”

Greatest Animated Brief

“Age of Sail”
“Bird Karma”

Greatest Reside Motion Brief


Greatest Cinematography

“The Favourite”
“First Man”
“A Star Is Born”
“Cold War”

Greatest Costumes 

“Black Panther”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“Free Solo”

Greatest Documentary Function

“Free Solo”
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
“Minding the Gap”
“Of Fathers and Sons”

Greatest Documentary Brief

“Black Sheep”
“Women of the Gulag”
“End Game”
“Period. End of Sentence.”

Greatest Modifying

“A Star Is Born”
“The Favourite”
“First Man”

Greatest Overseas Language Movie

“Roma” (Mexico)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)

Greatest Make-up and Hairstyling

“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Black Panther”

Greatest Manufacturing Design

“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“First Man”

Greatest Unique Rating

“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”

Greatest Unique Track

“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)
“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”)
“I’ll Fight” (“RBG”)
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (“Mary Poppins Returns”)

Greatest Sound Modifying

“A Quiet Place”
“First Man”
“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”

Greatest Sound Mixing

“A Star Is Born”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“A Quiet Place”
“First Man”

Greatest Visible Results

“Black Panther”
“Ready Player One”
“Avengers Infinity War”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins Returns”

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